It's been a whirlwind week for U.S. gamers, marked by a series of unexpected developments. The week kicked off with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and game lineup. However, the excitement was quickly tempered by the announcement of its hefty $450 price tag, compounded by the $80 price for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the sudden, sweeping tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration on international trade.
We've previously delved into the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these new tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: What will Nintendo do next? Will the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 rise even further once pre-orders open?
Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. Although they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. I've already turned to them twice this week for insights. However, this time, every analyst I spoke with was stumped. Some offered guesses about whether Nintendo would raise or maintain prices, but all emphasized the unprecedented chaos of the current situation. No one can accurately predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or any other stakeholders in the coming days, weeks, or months.
With this remarkable uncertainty in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke with did say:
Sky-High Switch
The analysts were divided in their predictions. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, believes that Nintendo will likely increase prices. Initially skeptical that Nintendo could adjust prices after the initial announcement, he now sees the delay as a window for price hikes. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," he stated. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."
Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing: "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that prices are likely to rise, albeit with heavy caveats about the unpredictability of the situation. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he noted. Piscatella suggested that Nintendo had set initial prices with certain tariff assumptions in mind, but the actual tariffs announced on Wednesday were much higher than anticipated.
"Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," he emphasized. Piscatella also pointed out that the US might join other regions in facing higher video game prices due to the chaotic nature of the tariffs.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase, though he believes software might be less affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said. However, he added, "Regarding hardware, the situation is more sensitive. If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices."
Holding the Line
On the other hand, some analysts believe Nintendo will try to maintain the announced price. Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges that a price increase is possible, especially with high tariffs on Vietnam. However, he thinks Nintendo will work hard to avoid it.
"I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo has aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the current price already reflects an anticipation of potential economic challenges stemming from ongoing trade disputes."
Van Dreunen added, "Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower. While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, the external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further."
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo is in a difficult position. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place. This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time, and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks. This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait-and-see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season."
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He referenced his previous comments to IGN about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions of games in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode—and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."
Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. "Some manufacturers—Nintendo included—have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," he said. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next—as recent news supports. Companies cannot just lift up their whole supply chain and move everything to the US. It’s just not logistically possible. Under current law (I can’t believe I have to qualify this, but here we are), Trump would not be in power anymore by the time such a move would be completed—for Nintendo and other manufacturers. We are living in…there’s no other word for it…unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)."
Elliott further noted the negative impact on US consumers: "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business. I won’t comment on the real reason for the US tariffs, but 'a much stronger, much richer nation' is not it."
He concluded by highlighting the economic principles at stake: "What’s more, time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods)—and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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