Market research firm DFC Intelligence predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 will dominate next-generation console sales, even before its release. Their forecast anticipates impressive sales figures.
Projected Sales: 80 Million Units by 2028
DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, positions the Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is projected to lead the console market, outpacing Microsoft and Sony. This projection is fueled by the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 launch and the relatively limited initial competition. Sales are estimated at 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million units by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges to meet potential demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring unexpected releases in 2026) is expected to solidify its market leadership. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, highlighting a potential strong showing for a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
Nintendo's Switch is already a massive success, surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
Video Game Industry Poised for Growth
DFC Intelligence forecasts a positive outlook for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole states that after a two-year slowdown, the industry is set for sustained growth through the end of the decade, exceeding a 20x increase over the past three decades. 2025 is projected to be a particularly strong year, driven by new product releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI is expected to significantly boost overall sales.
The video game audience is also projected to expand, exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers are contributing factors to increased hardware sales across both PC and consoles.
